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September domestic market steel price volatility upward in September, by the "double control" and other environmental protection measures, domestic steel production continued to decline, the steel market tightening expectations have risen, steel prices from decline to rise. Into October, steel prices continue to be slightly upward trend.
First, the domestic steel price index from falling to rising
According to the Iron and Steel Association monitoring, at the end of September, China's steel price index was 157.70 points, up 6.63 points over the end of August, or 4.39%, from decline to rise; compared with the same period last year rose 51.71 points, or 48.79%.
(A) long steel prices rose higher than the plate
At the end of September, the CSPI long steel index of 165.56 points, up 12.49 points, or 8.16%; CSPI plate index of 154.19 points, up 1.59 points, or 1.04%; long steel prices rose 7.12 percentage points higher than the plate. Compared with the same period last year, long steel, plate index rose 56.82 points and 48.69 points, or 52.25% and 46.15%.
(ii) Changes in the prices of major varieties of steel
At the end of September, in the Iron and Steel Association to monitor the eight major varieties of steel, in addition to cold-rolled sheet and galvanised sheet prices fell slightly by 3 yuan / tonne and 21 yuan / tonne, the other varieties of prices have risen from decline. Among them, high wire, rebar, hot-rolled seamless pipe rebound larger than the ring rose 478 yuan / tonne, 541 yuan / tonne and 309 yuan / tonne; Angle, plate and hot-rolled coil rose relatively small, rose 128 yuan / tonne, 88 yuan / tonne and 102 yuan / tonne.
(C) the weekly steel price index changes
September, CSPI steel price index week by week slightly. Upward; into October, continue to show an upward trend. National fixed asset investment grew 7.3% year-on-year, 1.6 percentage points lower than the January-August growth rate. Among them, infrastructure investment increased by 1.5% year-on-year, down 1.4 percentage points from January to August; manufacturing investment increased by 14.8% year-on-year, down 0.9 percentage points from January to August; real estate development investment increased by 8.8% year-on-year, down 2.1 percentage points from January to August. in September, the value-added of industries above designated size increased by 3.1% year-on-year, up 0.05 percent year-on-year; automobile production fell 17.9 percent year-on-year, continuing to show a downward trend. From the overall situation, in September the downstream steel industry growth rate fell back, the intensity of steel demand has declined.
(D) changes in steel prices in major regional markets
In September, the CSPI six regional indices were down to up. Among them: East China's market rose relatively large, up 4.93%; Southwest China rose relatively small, up 3.72%; North China, Northeast, Central and South and Northwest China rose 3.74%, 4.23%, 4.35% and 4.58%.
Second, the domestic market steel price change factors analysis
In September, by some areas of floods and epidemics repeatedly and other factors, the demand side of the slowdown; by the "double control" measures, the supply side has also declined. Overall, the domestic steel market supply and demand were stable and slightly tight situation.
(A) the main steel industry growth slowed down
According to the National Bureau of Statistics data, the first three quarters, GDP growth of 9.8% year-on-year, of which the third quarter growth of 4.9% year-on-year, a drop of 3.0 percentage points; national fixed asset investment (excluding farms) increased by 7.3% year-on-year, compared with the growth rate of 1-August fell by 1.6 percentage points. Among them, infrastructure investment increased by 1.5% year-on-year, down 1.4 percentage points from January-August; manufacturing investment increased by 14.8% year-on-year, down 0.9 percentage points from January-month; real estate development investment increased by 8.8% year-on-year, down 2.1 percentage points from January-August. in September, value-added of industries above designated size increased by 3.1% year-on-year, up 0.05 percent year-on-year; automobile production fell 17.9 percent year-on-year, continuing to show a downward trend. From the overall situation, the downstream steel industry growth rate fell in September, steel demand intensity has declined.
(ii) Crude steel production continued to decline year-on-year
According to the National Bureau of Statistics data, in September, the national pig iron, crude steel and steel production of 65.19 million tonnes, 73.75 million tonnes and 101.95 million tonnes, respectively, a year-on-year decline of 16.1%, 21.2% and 14.8%, the crude steel production has been five consecutive months of decline in the ring, three consecutive months of year-on-year decline and year-on-year decline accelerated month on month; average daily crude steel production of 2.458 million tonnes, the average daily ring fell 8.5%. 8.5%. According to customs statistics, in September, the country exported 4.92 million tonnes of steel, a decrease of 2.6%; imports of steel 1.26 million tonnes, an increase of 18.2%, net exports of steel equivalent to 3.81 million tonnes of crude steel, a decrease of 530,000 tonnes. From the overall situation, the decline in steel production hedged the impact of weakening demand, supply and demand in the steel market to maintain a stable and slightly tighter trend.
(C) raw materials prices fluctuate at high levels
In September, iron ore prices fell, but coal and coke, scrap and other raw fuel prices continue to rise. According to the Iron and Steel Association monitoring, at the end of September, domestic iron ore concentrate prices fell 190 yuan / tonne, CIOPI imported ore prices fell $ 33.72 / tonne; coking coal and metallurgical coke prices rose 805 yuan / tonne and 794 yuan / tonne, respectively, the price of scrap steel prices rose 38 yuan / tonne. Rise of 38 yuan / tonne. From the year-on-year situation, domestic iron ore concentrate and imported ore rose 8.80% and 2.82% year-on-year, coking coal and metallurgical coke prices rose 193.70% and 116.05% year-on-year, respectively, and scrap steel prices rose 46.12% year-on-year. Iron ore and coal coke, scrap prices remain high, pushing up the cost of steel enterprises.
Third, the international steel prices from rise to fall
In September, the international steel price index was 337.1 points, down 0.7 points, down 0.2%, from rise to fall; compared with the same period last year rose 182.3 points, or 117.8%.
International steel price index (CRU) chart
(A) long steel index fell slightly, plate index continued to rise
In September, CRU long steel index was 276.3 points, down 4.7 points, down 1.7%; CRU plate index was 367.4 points, up 1.4 points, or 0.4%; compared with the same period last year, the CRU long steel index rose 115.7 points year-on-year, or 72.0%; CRU plate index rose 215.6 points year-on-year, or 142.0%. CRU Long Products and Plate Indexes
CRU long steel and plate price index charts
(B) North America narrowed the rate of increase, Europe increased the rate of decline, Asia from rise to decline
1, the North American market
In September, CRU North America steel price index was 440.2 points, up 9.7 points, or 2.3%, narrowed 2.9 percentage points compared with the previous month; U.S. manufacturing PMI was 61.1%, up 1.2 percentage points. Among them, the production index fell 0.6 percentage points, inventory index rose 1.4 percentage points; the end of September, the U.S. crude steel capacity utilisation rate of 84.59%, down 0.4 percentage points from a year earlier. This month, the U.S. steel mills in the Midwest rebar and beam prices were stable, other varieties continue to rise.
2, the European market
In September, CRU European steel price index was 360.7 points, down 4.4 points, down 1.2%, down 1.8 percentage points from the previous month to expand; eurozone manufacturing PMI was 58.6%, down 2.8 percentage points from the previous year. Among them, Germany, Italy, France and Spain's manufacturing PMI were 58.4%, 59.7%, 55% and 58.1%, compared with the ring, down last month. Plate varieties in the German market this month, in addition to cold rolled strip coil prices have rallied, the rest of the varieties of prices have declined.
3, the Asian market
In September, CRU Asian steel price index of 263.5 points, down 4.7 points, down 1.8%, down from up to down; Japan's manufacturing PMI of 51.5%, down 1.2 percentage points; South Korea's manufacturing PMI of 52.4%, up 1.2 percentage points; China's manufacturing PMI of 49.6%, down 0.5 percentage points. This month, the Indian market in addition to rebar and wire rod prices continue to rebound, the rest of the varieties of prices continue to decline, the rate of decline narrowed.
Fourth, the later steel price trend analysis
As the weather turns cold, downstream steel demand has decreased. In order to ensure that the task of reducing crude steel production throughout the year, around the world, all departments to further increase the strength of the relevant policies and measures, late steel production will also be reduced. Later market supply and demand is basically stable, steel prices will be a small fluctuation trend. The domestic market into the steel consumption off-season, the intensity of demand has weakened from the international market, the global economic recovery is unstable. According to the International Monetary Fund in October, the latest release of the "World Economic Outlook" is expected to 2021, the global economy will continue to recover, but by the impact of the epidemic, the momentum of recovery has weakened. For the year as a whole, the global economy is expected to grow by 5.9 per cent, a 0.1 percentage point downward revision from the forecast in the July report. Impacts on global supply chains and inflationary pressures have weakened the global economic outlook. Inflationary pressures have increased the risks to the global economic outlook. Domestically, the national economy was also operating under downward pressure, with GDP growth of 4.9 per cent in the third quarter, significantly lower than the growth rate in the second quarter. In the housing policy constraints, the late real estate investment, local bond issuance scale, housing enterprises financing aspects of further signs of weakness; machinery industry order level continuous decline, including automotive growth rate continued to fall. Later steel demand intensity is a further weakening trend.
(A) production reduction policy continues, market supply and demand is expected to be stable
Premier Li Keqiang on October 9, the State Council Energy Committee meeting, "adhere to the national chess, do not jump the gun, from a practical point of view, to correct the local 'one size fits all' power restrictions or 'campaign-style' carbon reduction ". For the steel industry, this does not mean that the task of reducing crude steel production target has changed. From the current situation, the state resolutely reduce crude steel production, strictly abide by the bottom line of no new production capacity unswervingly, the relevant ministries and commissions are organising to carry out a nationwide steel production capacity "look back" inspection and crude steel production reduction work, the main steel-producing provinces and large-scale iron and steel enterprises have also introduced measures to control crude steel production. Crude steel output is expected to decline later. Overall, supply and demand are expected to form a new stable, steel prices will be slightly fluctuating trend.
(B) steel social inventories from falling to rising, corporate inventories continue to rise
According to the Iron and Steel Association statistics, in early October, the country's 20 cities, five kinds of steel social inventories of 10.85 million tonnes, an increase of 200,000 tonnes in late September, or 1.9%, for the first time in four consecutive days after the decline rebound; than the beginning of the year increased by 3.55 million tonnes, an increase of 48.6%; than the same period a year ago, a decrease of 1.79 million tonnes, a decline of 14.2%. From the enterprise inventory situation, in early October, members of the steel enterprise steel inventory of 12.84 million tonnes, an increase of 890,000 tonnes than in late September, up 7.43%; than the beginning of the year, an increase of 1.22 million tonnes, an increase of 10.51%; compared with the same period a year ago, a decrease of 750,000 tonnes, down 5.52%. Steel social inventories and corporate inventories have risen, late steel prices are difficult to rise sharply.
The main issues to be concerned about later.
First, crude steel production fell more, later supply and demand are expected to form a new balance. Domestic crude steel production fell continuously year-on-year, and the rate of decline has increased, the downstream demand side of the steel demand intensity has also weakened. Steel enterprises should carefully analyse the market demand situation, actively adjust the product structure, and maintain stable steel prices.
Second, coking coal and coke prices are high and consolidating, and the pressure on enterprises to reduce costs and increase efficiency is still large. According to the Iron and Steel Association monitoring, October 15, coking coal and metallurgical coke prices were 3,815 yuan / tonne and 4,118 yuan / tonne, respectively, than at the beginning of the year rose 156.38% and 76.36%, while the same period of the steel price index is only, rose 27.76%. Coal and coke prices continue to be high, the later steel enterprises to reduce costs and efficiency to form greater pressure.
